Date: January 14, 2026 at the University of Washington Seattle

Topic: Uncertainty-aware grid planning in the real world: insights from applying robust optimization to integrated resource planning in California

Speaker: Gabriel Mantegna – Resilient Transition and Princeton University

Abstract: Capacity expansion models are frequently used to inform multi-billion dollar grid infrastructure expansion decisions, a context in which there is significant uncertainty surrounding the future need for and performance of such infrastructure. However, despite a seeming abundance of academic literature on the topic, virtually no grid planning processes use capacity expansion models that endogenously consider uncertainty, an oversight which frequently leads to short-sighted infrastructure decisions. This is partially due to a technology transfer gap, but it is also due to a lack of methods that work at a large enough scale to be useful in real grid planning processes. In this talk we review the results of a new method for endogenizing uncertainty into capacity expansion planning models that addresses this gap, along with the impact of applying it to California’s integrated resource planning process. We also discuss how these methods can be incorporated into utility planning alongside existing methods, and progress towards commercialization of these methods.